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It really came as no surprise that Lance Armstrong was starting his own cycling team in 2010. We had predicted that ever since he announced his comeback last year, but even we were surprised by the naming of Radio Shack as the title sponsor.

Armstrong has made it no secret that he did not sign a contract with Astana and did not take a salary from the team, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him riding in Radio Shack colors this year, but it won’t be until later in the fall when we start to see a definitive list of riders for 2010. That said, we can start to handicap the picks based on loyalties and some other information.

The Easy Picks:

First, there are his loyal lieutenants. Levi Leipheimer, Gregory Rast, Haimar Zubeldia, Andreas Kloden and Chris Horner. Most of these guys have been by his side since the US Postal/Discovery Channel days and have served him well. That said, there may not be complete loyalty there.

Most notably, Chris Horner expressed some dissatisfaction with not being invited to the Tour de France this year. At 38 years old, he may have retirement on his mind. The same applies to 36 year old Levi Leipheimer. Of course, with Astana heading off into the sunset, they have to go somewhere.

• Yaroslav Popovych – 1:1
• Gregory Rast – 1:1
• Andreas Kloden – 1:1
• Janez Brajkovic – 1:1
• Levi Leipheimer – 2:1
• Chris Horner – 3:1

Also in the likely category is Brice Feillu. Lance Armstrong has reportedly talked to him already and with the Agribtubel team closing shop at the end of 2009, this promising young rider needs a place to go.

• Brice Feillu – 2:1

The Juniors:

Part of Lance’s comeback announcement at Interbike last year involved the formation of the Trek/Livestrong U23 team, with cycling phenom Taylor Phinney at its core. Phinney has gone on to some great successes, most notably winning the junior version of Paris-Roubaix. Phinney and his teammate Ben King would be a good addition to the Radio Shack team as staigaires. Let’s just put them both as a 3:1 possibility within the next two years.

Strong possibilities:

As Brice Feillu is almost certain to join the team, it might be a safe guess that his brother Romain would come along as well.

Romain Feillu – 3:1

Ivan Basso, Floyd Landis, Michael Rasmussen & Stijn Devolder have all been mentioned.

I think it’s safe to say that Basso likes his leadership position at Liquigas. At 32 years of age, he still has several years of racing left in him, however, so working for Lance in 2010 with the possibility of a leadership position in 2011 might be attractive.

Landis mentored under Armstrong before going on to fame (and infamy) with Phonak. He made his return to the pro ranks this year with OUCH p/b Maxxis, but has had less than a stellar season. Returning to the Pro Tour ranks and the roads of Europe may be alluring to Floyd, but for Armstrong, it’s a bet on a rider that has yet to prove himself on his return.

Rasmussen is another rider that went down in flames before coming back this season. I’m not sure of any relationship between him and Armstrong and he is another that still needs to prove that he can perform at top levels again.

Basso, Landis and Rasmussen all have the specter of past doping hanging over them and that alone may be enough to dissuade Armstrong.

Finally, Stijn Devolder just doesn’t make that much sense. He tends to focus on the one-day classics and if the US Postal, Discovery and Astana model carries on into The Shack, they will be focused on stage races. Of course, they could give him the opportunity to go for wins at the classics instead of supporting Tom Boonen.

• Ivan Basso – 5:1
• Floyd Landis – 8:1
• Michael Rasmussen – 10:1
• Stijn Devolder – 10:1

Not Now, Not Ever:

I think it’s safe to say that Fillipo Simeoni and Alberto Contador will not be seen riding with Lance next year.

Tags: alberto contador, Andreas Kloden, astana, brice feillu, Chris Horner, cycling, floyd landis, gregory rast, Interbike, Ivan Basso, Lance Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, Liquigas, michael rasmussen, OUCH, Paris-Roubaix, radio shack, romain feillu, Stijn Devolder, Taylor Phinney, Tom Boonen, yaroslav popovych

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